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（本报记者朱隽、王浩、常钦、郁静娴、李晓晴、邓剑洋）
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The four-week timeline priced in by the market represents a critical threshold for the global economy. Struyven noted that the impact on oil prices is a “convex function” of the disruption’s length. If the conflict is brief—lasting only a few days or a week—the impact on prices will be disproportionately smaller. In a short-term scenario, crude oil can simply be stored on land in Middle Eastern producing countries, delaying deliveries but leaving the cumulative global supply unaffected—a workaround if Iran’s threats of shutting down the Strait stretch come to fruition.
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Zelensky's remarks illustrate that uncertainty. On one hand he is gloomy, pointing to the risks that Ukraine's defence against Russia becomes a forgotten war. There is already uncertainty about whether the latest planned talks with the US and Russia will take place.