Fighting in the Middle East has begun disrupting energy exports from the region, and oil markets are responding. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude, climbed about 6% on Monday to just over $71 a barrel.
The intuition behind this mechanism is best illustrated by Wason’s (\citeyearwason_failure_1960) rule discovery task. When asked to discover a hidden rule governing number triples (e.g., 2-4-6), participants overwhelmingly proposed triples that fit their current hypothesis (e.g., testing 8-10-12 to confirm “increasing even numbers”) rather than triples that would defy it. Because the true rule was simply “increasing numbers,” these positive tests appeared to confirm people’s more restrictive hypotheses.
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of the interpolation equations.